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View Full Version : The definitive "What We Need To Get Into The Playoffs"



SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 09:41 AM
Here's what we need

1. Win out to a 9-7 record (in the process, we get the tie-break over MIA and give a loss to BAL)

2 JAX to lose any two (IND, @NE, CLE). Fortunately, even though IND has clinched #1, historically they have not done well when letting back and don't have a meaningful game for 34 days. I don't believe IND will hold back. NE is motivated and is 7-0 at home. Those are the two games to watch. Can't believe I'll be rooting for NE to win. :roll:

3. NYJ to lose any two (ATL, @IND, CIN) We need to be rooting for the Bengals to be motivated for that final game (for a 2 seed preferably). CIN plays SD next week. If CIN wins, then the race between CIN and SD for #2 is on and both teams will remain motivated to keep winning. WE ABSOLUTELY NEED TO BE ROOTING FOR CIN OVER SD THIS WEEKEND. Otherwise, I'm sure if CIN's playoff seed is locked, they'd be more than glad to lay one down and guarantee a Steeler knockout blow. ATL is struggling but still tough. Let's hope IND gets to slobbering over a 16-0 run.

We can also have the NYJ lose one as long as both they and MIA end with a 9-7 record. MIA beats them on inter-division tie-break. We would then beat MIA on cross-division tie-break due to head-to-head record.

4. BAL to lose one other (either CHI or @OAK) OR Denver to lose any two (OAK, @PHI, KC). I think this actually the least likely even though it is an OR involved. I believe CHI at BAL is the best chance here. This is the other big result to watch for this weekend.

I believe there is maybe one other way in involving NE losing all three. I'm going to say that pathway is way remote compared to the above.

Here are the big results to watch for this week (in order of importance).

1. IND vs JAX (root for IND)
2a. NYJ vs. ATL (root for ATL; ATL is still motivated with a shot at the playoffs)
2b. CHI vs. BAL (root for CHI; this would be HUGE)
3. OAK vs. DEN (root for OAK; moot point if CHI can win)
4. CIN vs. SD (root for CIN, to keep #2 seed in doubt and CIN motivated for Week 17 against the NYJ)
5. MIA vs. TEN (root for MIA)

JTP53609
12-14-2009, 11:10 AM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

papillon
12-14-2009, 11:20 AM
We're not out until the fat lady sings and I won't give up on the season until it's official.

Pappy

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 11:21 AM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

The least likely, I believe is item 4 above. Now it's time for the team to play, at the very least, for self-respect and confidence going into next season. I believe this year's draft has some HOT players like McClain, Suh, and Ingram, but there's no chance we can trade up for any of that action.

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 11:22 AM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

I think the Colts would be foolish to start the resting now. It has advantages but it also has its disadvantages, cheif of which can be a lack of focus and lack of mid-season form.

flippy
12-14-2009, 11:57 AM
The least likely is us winning out.

JTP53609
12-14-2009, 12:03 PM
i think the jets and jags will lose 2wice...next week chicago NEEDS to beat baltimore, if they dont than i think we are done bc say what you want about baltimore but they beat the inferior opponents, which is why if they win next week, than I think we are done bc they will not lose to oakland.....
denver on the other hand, i could see them slipping to oakland and philly....i cant believe we have a chance....
go colts and pats...

do we have the tie breaker with houston. i did not check

JTP53609
12-14-2009, 12:04 PM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

I think the Colts would be foolish to start the resting now. It has advantages but it also has its disadvantages, cheif of which can be a lack of focus and lack of mid-season form.


exactly...they did rest their starters the final 2 weeks in 2005...i think they lost in the playoffs that year.... :tt1

BradshawsHairdresser
12-14-2009, 12:06 PM
We're not out until the fat lady sings
Pappy

She might not be singing, but she's moaning and getting her vocal cords warmed up.

BradshawsHairdresser
12-14-2009, 12:09 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

BDESteel
12-14-2009, 12:13 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

Do we know 43's status for this week?

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 12:47 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

Do we know 43's status for this week?

To tell the truth, I'd rather some hedge here with playing Troy. I think given that we need some serious help, it would be foolish to commit Troy to playing before we see how things play out. Unfortunately we have a 1:00 game. This is one of those games you'd really rather have on Monday Night or even Sunday Night (to see how things play out). The Steelers should be actively lobbying for late season MNF games (for the very reason that it has the advantage of seeing how the week's results went).

If we even had a 4:00 game it would go a long way with this decision.

JTP53609
12-14-2009, 01:05 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

Do we know 43's status for this week?

To tell the truth, I'd rather some hedge here with playing Troy. I think given that we need some serious help, it would be foolish to commit Troy to playing before we see how things play out. Unfortunately we have a 1:00 game. This is one of those games you'd really rather have on Monday Night or even Sunday Night (to see how things play out). The Steelers should be actively lobbying for late season MNF games (for the very reason that it has the advantage of seeing how the week's results went).

If we even had a 4:00 game it would go a long way with this decision.

they moved it to 4:15 steel....

RuthlessBurgher
12-14-2009, 01:18 PM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

The least likely, I believe is item 4 above. Now it's time for the team to play, at the very least, for self-respect and confidence going into next season. I believe this year's draft has some HOT players like McClain, Suh, and Ingram, but there's no chance we can trade up for any of that action.

I think it would be a huge upset if Suh does not get drafted #1 overall. Absolute beast.

Mark Ingram, the Heisman trophy winning son of the former Giants wideout, is not draft eligible this year. He's only a sophomore.

McClain is a player, and could be an option with Farrior apparently losing a step or two. However, with Timmons and Fox also as ILB's to rotate in the with the aging Farrior to keep him fresh, I would rather spend our early picks to find a replacement for Hampton at NT and upgrade our secondary with actual playmakers. I think we look for ILB depth in the middle rounds.

birtikidis
12-14-2009, 01:39 PM
wasn't Ingram a redshirt sophmore though? that would make him eligible.

birtikidis
12-14-2009, 01:40 PM
nope nevermind. he's a true sophmore.

SteelBucks
12-14-2009, 01:44 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

:Agree

This team has to show me signs of life before I start going through playoff scenarios.

BDESteel
12-14-2009, 01:44 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

Do we know 43's status for this week?

To tell the truth, I'd rather some hedge here with playing Troy. I think given that we need some serious help, it would be foolish to commit Troy to playing before we see how things play out. Unfortunately we have a 1:00 game. This is one of those games you'd really rather have on Monday Night or even Sunday Night (to see how things play out). The Steelers should be actively lobbying for late season MNF games (for the very reason that it has the advantage of seeing how the week's results went).

If we even had a 4:00 game it would go a long way with this decision.

Troy is our best chance to win. If he's healthy he should play no matter what. Everyone healthy should play like it's the SB, just like every team played us this year.

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 04:45 PM
i cant believe im saying this, but that does not look impossible, the key is for indy, if they feel like playing and going for 16-0 than that is good news for us, bill polian said he would rest them though....
the fact of the matter is, the steelers dont want to make the playoffs, it looks like they tanked the season so they could have an extra month off rather than play...

The least likely, I believe is item 4 above. Now it's time for the team to play, at the very least, for self-respect and confidence going into next season. I believe this year's draft has some HOT players like McClain, Suh, and Ingram, but there's no chance we can trade up for any of that action.

I think it would be a huge upset if Suh does not get drafted #1 overall. Absolute beast.

Mark Ingram, the Heisman trophy winning son of the former Giants wideout, is not draft eligible this year. He's only a sophomore.

McClain is a player, and could be an option with Farrior apparently losing a step or two. However, with Timmons and Fox also as ILB's to rotate in the with the aging Farrior to keep him fresh, I would rather spend our early picks to find a replacement for Hampton at NT and upgrade our secondary with actual playmakers. I think we look for ILB depth in the middle rounds.

Agreed. As a matter of fact, I was kind of pissed he didn't win the Heisman. Heisman is best player right? How can that be an O guy every d*mn year? I'm sick of this eternal obssession with offense, stats, and such. DEFENSE people. (uh, Heisman people, not you). :)

I have a new nickname for Ndamakong Suh ... Ndominate You. :wink:

Uh ... forgot about that. :oops:

If McClain falls to us, then I'll poop in the fridge and eat an entire wheel of cheese.

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 04:52 PM
The least likely is us winning out.

$$$$
Based on what I've seen from the this team the last 5 weeks, it's hard to have any optimism about that at all.

Do we know 43's status for this week?

To tell the truth, I'd rather some hedge here with playing Troy. I think given that we need some serious help, it would be foolish to commit Troy to playing before we see how things play out. Unfortunately we have a 1:00 game. This is one of those games you'd really rather have on Monday Night or even Sunday Night (to see how things play out). The Steelers should be actively lobbying for late season MNF games (for the very reason that it has the advantage of seeing how the week's results went).

If we even had a 4:00 game it would go a long way with this decision.

they moved it to 4:15 steel....

Well, that's actually really nice. Then we get a look at the BAL-CHI result as well as some others. I believe IND-JAX is this Thursday night. That's another little bonus.

SteelAbility
12-14-2009, 06:44 PM
Believe it or not, if we get in along with Denver, both finishing 9-7, we get the 5 seed. :lol:

Wolfhound45
12-14-2009, 06:58 PM
Win.

And hope.

And pray.

The first is the "Steelers" way. The next two are not.

SteelAbility
12-15-2009, 08:05 AM
If the stars totally line up, we can actually get in with an 8-8 record. It has to do with the fact that we have lost to bottom dwellers and would hold tie-breaks over MIA and TEN. :)

JTP53609
12-15-2009, 08:12 AM
this is what i wrote on another thread, and it I really feel that this can happen....

this is what we need in addition to winning out
-the jets will lose 2, the key is if the bengals are still playing in week 17 and if the colts keep playing next weekend...
-the jags will lose 2, again the colts wil play this week i hope and next week they have the pats at NE in a must win for the pats....
-as long as all the above plays out than if we beat the fins we are okay to leapfrog them....
-than the hardest part is the broncos/ravens, we need one of them to lose 2 games, the bears game this week at baltimore is huge as is the raiders at denver, if one of those goes our way than I feel we are in good shape....

all we need to do is beat GB to get the wins rolling...

SteelAbility
12-15-2009, 08:22 AM
this is what i wrote on another thread, and it I really feel that this can happen....

this is what we need in addition to winning out
-the jets will lose 2, the key is if the bengals are still playing in week 17 and if the colts keep playing next weekend...
-the jags will lose 2, again the colts wil play this week i hope and next week they have the pats at NE in a must win for the pats....
-as long as all the above plays out than if we beat the fins we are okay to leapfrog them....
-than the hardest part is the broncos/ravens, we need one of them to lose 2 games, the bears game this week at baltimore is huge as is the raiders at denver, if one of those goes our way than I feel we are in good shape....

all we need to do is beat GB to get the wins rolling...

Is there an echo in here?

JTP53609
12-15-2009, 08:32 AM
this is what i wrote on another thread, and it I really feel that this can happen....

this is what we need in addition to winning out
-the jets will lose 2, the key is if the bengals are still playing in week 17 and if the colts keep playing next weekend...
-the jags will lose 2, again the colts wil play this week i hope and next week they have the pats at NE in a must win for the pats....
-as long as all the above plays out than if we beat the fins we are okay to leapfrog them....
-than the hardest part is the broncos/ravens, we need one of them to lose 2 games, the bears game this week at baltimore is huge as is the raiders at denver, if one of those goes our way than I feel we are in good shape....

all we need to do is beat GB to get the wins rolling...

Is there an echo in here?


hahaha, sorry, i was reading another thread that was similar, so i copied this one but as you can see i pasted it wrong, :Clap i give myself a round of applause for that one

JTP53609
12-15-2009, 08:33 AM
well the best part is that we still have meaningful football to watch this weekend, if the jags lose thursday and a few other teams lose, than we still have a pulse...

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-15-2009, 09:55 AM
Believe it or not, if we get in along with Denver, both finishing 9-7, we get the 5 seed. :lol:
Try to follow this...Possible, but unlikely.
(If Steelers win out.) That only happens if...The Broncos, Ravens, Jags, & Jets lose 2...And the Texans lose 1. That would put us against the Broncos, Dolphins, & Titans...Which we would own the sweep. Any other team besides the Broncos, Dolphins, & Titans end up 9-7 with us at that seeding...We don't get in. They would throw out the sweep and go to conference record tie-breaker.

I will simplify all scenarios for you. This is where the playoffs hopes ride. Win out... And Ravens need to lose 2...That is #1 priority. If that doesn't happen we can do no better than #6 seed at #3 in the division. There will be alot of 9-7 teams with better conference records. If the Ravens lose twice and 9-7 seeds #5 & #6...We have 2 shots. If the Ravens only lose against us & 9-7 seeds #5 & #6...We have 1 shot at the wild card seeding (#6 seed) and that is only after the Ravens go. Kinda breaks it down for you. You want hope...The Ravens have to open the door. I hate to break it to you...But they could open the door before the Packers game...And then it could be on. If the Steelers get past the Packers, Ravens, & Dolphins...And the Ravens beat the Bears but need to win @ the Raiders...Don't worry Steelers fans...We could have the "Hell" of watching that game at 4:15 after the Dolphins game with everything on the line. Stock up on the BEER...We might need it!!!

So that was the "Hell" Tomlin was talking about!

JTP53609
12-15-2009, 10:03 AM
Believe it or not, if we get in along with Denver, both finishing 9-7, we get the 5 seed. :lol:
Try to follow this...Possible, but unlikely.
(If Steelers win out.) That only happens if...The Broncos, Ravens, Jags, & Jets lose 2...And the Texans lose 1. That would put us against the Broncos, Dolphins, & Titans...Which we would own the sweep. Any other team besides the Broncos, Dolphins, & Titans end up 9-7 with us at that seeding...We don't get in. They would throw out the sweep and go to conference record tie-breaker.

I will simplify all scenarios for you. This is where the playoffs hopes ride. Win out... And Ravens need to lose 2...That is #1 priority. If that doesn't happen we can do no better than #6 seed at #3 in the division. There will be alot of 9-7 teams with better conference records. If the Ravens lose twice and 9-7 seeds #5 & #6...We have 2 shots. If the Ravens only lose against us & 9-7 seeds #5 & #6...We have 1 shot at the wild card seeding (#6 seed) and that is only after the Ravens go. Kinda breaks it down for you. You want hope...The Ravens have to open the door. I hate to break it to you...But they could open the door before the Packers game...And then it could be on. If the Steelers get past the Packers, Ravens, & Dolphins...And the Ravens beat the Bears but need to win @ the Raiders...Don't worry Steelers fans...We could have the "Hell" of watching that game at 4:15 after the Dolphins game with everything on the line. Stock up on the BEER...We might need it!!!

So that was the "Hell" Tomlin was talking about!

i have a feeling that the dolphins steelers game will be the sunday night prime timer..there are no real big games that jump out, they will choose one game and that may be the game to figure out who will be the last team in...

JTP53609
12-15-2009, 10:05 AM
and like i said, i see the jets and jags each losing twice more, i HOPE the rats lose this weekend, but I dont see it, but if the broncos lose the raiders (which could happen) than i think they are done because they will lose to the eagles the next week, which would make us a 6 seed if we win out....

SteelAbility
12-15-2009, 04:00 PM
BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.

SteelAbility
12-15-2009, 04:03 PM
I also have a feeling the league is going to either dictate to or at the very least push IND to continue playing to win. A 16-0 season draws more attention to the NFL. The prospect of two 18-0 teams meeting in the SB also draws a lot of attention. The league wants that.

RuthlessBurgher
12-15-2009, 04:14 PM
I also have a feeling the league is going to either dictate to or at the very least push IND to continue playing to win. A 16-0 season draws more attention to the NFL. The prospect of two 18-0 teams meeting in the SB also draws a lot of attention. The league wants that.

Except for these guys. :wink:

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2007/1218/nfl_g_old_fins_580.jpg

papillon
12-15-2009, 04:23 PM
I'm glad that I'm not the only who hasn't given up on this season just yet. Since, the game has been moved back to 4:15 the Steelers will know if anything good has happened before they play. If some of the teams that need to lose have lost, I hope the Steelers can muster up more of an effort than they did against the Browns.

I firmly believe that a 9-7 team is going to make the playoffs this year (maybe two). No AFC teams are playing good football right now except for the Colts and Chargers. Teams are going to lose games, I just hope it isn't the Steelers.

Pappy

Wolfhound45
12-15-2009, 04:52 PM
I'm glad that I'm not the only who hasn't given up on this season just yet. Since, the game has been moved back to 4:15 the Steelers will know if anything good has happened before they play. If some of the teams that need to lose have lost, I hope the Steelers can muster up more of an effort than they did against the Browns.

I firmly believe that a 9-7 team is going to make the playoffs this year (maybe two). No AFC teams are playing good football right now except for the Colts and Chargers. Teams are going to lose games, I just hope it isn't the Steelers.

Pappy

Pappy, there are few posters on this board I respect as much as you. Despite all of the emotion and angst that has been shown as of late, you have been a source of reason and calmness. However, I have to disagree with your premise. If this team had been fighting for the past five weeks to get to 6-7 and stay in the playoff hunt then I would say the 4:15 start is an added incentive. However, the way they have played since Denver, they should not be looking to the scoreboard for any help. In my opinion they need to acknowledge that after a 6-2 start they put themselves in this predicament and may deserve to be at home during the playoffs.

papillon
12-15-2009, 11:33 PM
I'm glad that I'm not the only who hasn't given up on this season just yet. Since, the game has been moved back to 4:15 the Steelers will know if anything good has happened before they play. If some of the teams that need to lose have lost, I hope the Steelers can muster up more of an effort than they did against the Browns.

I firmly believe that a 9-7 team is going to make the playoffs this year (maybe two). No AFC teams are playing good football right now except for the Colts and Chargers. Teams are going to lose games, I just hope it isn't the Steelers.

Pappy

Pappy, there are few posters on this board I respect as much as you. Despite all of the emotion and angst that has been shown as of late, you have been a source of reason and calmness. However, I have to disagree with your premise. If this team had been fighting for the past five weeks to get to 6-7 and stay in the playoff hunt then I would say the 4:15 start is an added incentive. However, the way they have played since Denver, they should not be looking to the scoreboard for any help. In my opinion they need to acknowledge that after a 6-2 start they put themselves in this predicament and may deserve to be at home during the playoffs.

And all I'm saying is that the Steelers aren't the only team struggling right now and that a mediocre team (maybe two) is going to get into the playoffs. Why not the Steelers? I'm the first to admit that I hate having to hope for others to lose to help the Steelers, but I won't turn it down if it happens.

Of course, they should have been motivated when they were 6-2 and could have wrapped this thing up, but they weren't or they were and simply can't make plays. Either way, if things fall right early in the day, they can look at the scoreboard and say, "hey, lets do this, we're still in the hunt!"

Not any real great hope, but, I simply refuse to give up on a season until it's final.

Pappy

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 08:09 AM
I also have a feeling the league is going to either dictate to or at the very least push IND to continue playing to win. A 16-0 season draws more attention to the NFL. The prospect of two 18-0 teams meeting in the SB also draws a lot of attention. The league wants that.

Except for these guys. :wink:

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2007/1218/nfl_g_old_fins_580.jpg

Heh heh. On the one hand, part of me would like to see those guys suck it. On the other hand, you simply replace one set of unbearables with another set of unbearables, a "careful what you wish for you might get it" situation, if you will. Now if those unbearables are the Steelers, well, that's a whole different story. :wink:

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 08:10 AM
I'm glad that I'm not the only who hasn't given up on this season just yet. Since, the game has been moved back to 4:15 the Steelers will know if anything good has happened before they play. If some of the teams that need to lose have lost, I hope the Steelers can muster up more of an effort than they did against the Browns.

I firmly believe that a 9-7 team is going to make the playoffs this year (maybe two). No AFC teams are playing good football right now except for the Colts and Chargers. Teams are going to lose games, I just hope it isn't the Steelers.

Pappy

Pappy, there are few posters on this board I respect as much as you. Despite all of the emotion and angst that has been shown as of late, you have been a source of reason and calmness. However, I have to disagree with your premise. If this team had been fighting for the past five weeks to get to 6-7 and stay in the playoff hunt then I would say the 4:15 start is an added incentive. However, the way they have played since Denver, they should not be looking to the scoreboard for any help. In my opinion they need to acknowledge that after a 6-2 start they put themselves in this predicament and may deserve to be at home during the playoffs.

And all I'm saying is that the Steelers aren't the only team struggling right now and that a mediocre team (maybe two) is going to get into the playoffs. Why not the Steelers? I'm the first to admit that I hate having to hope for others to lose to help the Steelers, but I won't turn it down if it happens.

Of course, they should have been motivated when they were 6-2 and could have wrapped this thing up, but they weren't or they were and simply can't make plays. Either way, if things fall right early in the day, they can look at the scoreboard and say, "hey, lets do this, we're still in the hunt!"

Not any real great hope, but, I simply refuse to give up on a season until it's final.

Pappy

Damn straight. This IS do-able. Go Bearssssss!!!!

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-16-2009, 11:43 AM
BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.
I know how the tie breakers work. 1 Jets loss put them at 9-7. Why would we want that? They could throw out the head-to-head sweep tie breaker. I actually looked into remaining games more and the Dolphins & Titans can't finish 9-7 in our best interest. Dolphins & Titans play Sunday. It is in the Steelers best interest to have the Titans win. That would still keep the Titans eliminating the Texans for us and give the Steelers the chance to control their own destiny last game if needed. Better to have 2 teams away from 1 loss out of the equation. As long as there are 5 & 6 loss teams ahead of us...We are on the outside looking in. Any team with 5 and/or 6 losses need to lose. The more we could get under 7 losses is to our advantage.

I see your line of thinking and it could be the best route to making it as long as the Broncos & Ravens drop 2. The Dolphins would eliminate the Titans & Texans by beating them and be #2 in the East eliminating the Jets. That would say the Jags would only have to drop 1 and be #5 seed. The Steelers would be up against the Dolphins & Broncos for #6 which we would win. Could be the back door if the Ravens lose 2.

If the Ravens don't drop 2...Won't work. Ravens losing twice is the first piece of the puzzle. Which looking at all the remaining games looks like the least likely to happen. Basing on that NOT happening...Dolphins lose 1 to us (9-7), Jets lose 1 (9-7), Jags lose 2 (Eliminated @ 8-8), Broncos lose 2 (9-7). Dolphins-Broncos-Steelers>>>#6 seed to Steelers. I'm assuming this is what you are thinking.

I'm for "muddying the waters" because if a 5 or 6 loss team takes the #5 the Steelers chances get ugly. If a 9-7 team take #5...I like our chances. I'm thinking more on the line of what has to happen first which is the Ravens losing 2 to be the #5 seed like you said. that is why I said Jets lose 2. Steelers win out. Dolphins lose to the Titans but the Dolphins beat the the Texans. Jets lose 2(Pick-Falcons,Colts, or Bengals). Jags lose 2(Pick-Colts,Patriots, or Browns). Titans beat the Dolphins but lose to the Chargers. Broncos lose 2(Pick-Raiders, Eagles, or Chiefs). That would give us #5 over Denver. "But" the Jets still might have to lose 2. :wink:

JTP53609
12-16-2009, 12:05 PM
the jets need to lose 2...and it is a possiblity, the bronocos and ravens would really help us if they lost 2 but they each have 1 game remaining that is difficult, which will hurt our chances if one of them wins 2 of the 3...

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 12:12 PM
BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.
I know how the tie breakers work. 1 Jets loss put them at 9-7. Why would we want that? They could throw out the head-to-head sweep tie breaker. I actually looked into remaining games more and the Dolphins & Titans can't finish 9-7 in our best interest. Dolphins & Titans play Sunday. It is in the Steelers best interest to have the Titans win. That would still keep the Titans eliminating the Texans for us and give the Steelers the chance to control their own destiny last game if needed. Better to have 2 teams away from 1 loss out of the equation. As long as there are 5 & 6 loss teams ahead of us...We are on the outside looking in. Any team with 5 and/or 6 losses need to lose. The more we could get under 7 losses is to our advantage.

I see your line of thinking and it could be the best route to making it as long as the Broncos & Ravens drop 2. The Dolphins would eliminate the Titans & Texans by beating them and be #2 in the East eliminating the Jets. That would say the Jags would only have to drop 1 and be #5 seed. The Steelers would be up against the Dolphins & Broncos for #6 which we would win. Could be the back door if the Ravens lose 2.

If the Ravens don't drop 2...Won't work. Ravens losing twice is the first piece of the puzzle. Which looking at all the remaining games looks like the least likely to happen. Basing on that NOT happening...Dolphins lose 1 to us (9-7), Jets lose 1 (9-7), Jags lose 2 (Eliminated @ 8-8), Broncos lose 2 (9-7). Dolphins-Broncos-Steelers>>>#6 seed to Steelers. I'm assuming this is what you are thinking.

I'm for "muddying the waters" because if a 5 or 6 loss team takes the #5 the Steelers chances get ugly. If a 9-7 team take #5...I like our chances. I'm thinking more on the line of what has to happen first which is the Ravens losing 2 to be the #5 seed like you said. that is why I said Jets lose 2. Steelers win out. Dolphins lose to the Titans but the Dolphins beat the the Texans. Jets lose 2(Pick-Falcons,Colts, or Bengals). Jags lose 2(Pick-Colts,Patriots, or Browns). Titans beat the Dolphins but lose to the Chargers. Broncos lose 2(Pick-Raiders, Eagles, or Chiefs). That would give us #5 over Denver. "But" the Jets still might have to lose 2. :wink:

What I'm saying (and all of this is predicated on winning out, beating Miami on tie-break in the process, and at-worst both having 9-7 records) we can TOLERATE one Jets loss (rather than 2) IF BOTH MIA AND THE NYJ FINISH 9-7.

Obviously, we want the Jets to lose this weekend. I'm just saying that there is a scenario by which we can tolerate only one loss by the Jets.

The reason to root for Miami is that we want them finishing with at least an equal record to the Jets in the event that the Jets lose only one. This way MIA knocks the NYJ out of contention with us.

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 12:17 PM
the jets need to lose 2...and it is a possiblity, the bronocos and ravens would really help us if they lost 2 but they each have 1 game remaining that is difficult, which will hurt our chances if one of them wins 2 of the 3...

This is actually not 100% true. We can tolerate one loss by the Jets if both MIA and NYJ finish 9-7 (along with us). MIA first beats the NYJ on inter-division tie-break (2-0 head to head record). If we finish 9-7, then obviously we had to have beat MIA (since we play them on the last game of the season). Then we beat MIA on cross-division tie-break.

The point is that MIA winning (except for against us) gives us protection against a tie-break with the NYJ.

papillon
12-16-2009, 12:46 PM
Here are the games:

-----Game-----------------Needed
Steelers vs Green Bay ------ Steelers
Ravens vs Bears ----------- Bears
Miami vs Tennessee -------- Either (I think)
Jets vs Atlanta ------------- Atlanta
Jax vs Indy ---------------- Indy
Houston vs St. Louis ------- St. Louis (not needed, but will almost eliminate Houston)
Buffalo vs New England ----- Either (Buffalo loses, they're out, NE loses, well, NE lost :) )
Denver vs Oakland ---------- Oakland

By 4:15 the Steelers will know where they stand, not that it should matter, but if a few games go their way it may put a little extra pep in their step!

Pappy

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-16-2009, 01:03 PM
BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.
I know how the tie breakers work. 1 Jets loss put them at 9-7. Why would we want that? They could throw out the head-to-head sweep tie breaker. I actually looked into remaining games more and the Dolphins & Titans can't finish 9-7 in our best interest. Dolphins & Titans play Sunday. It is in the Steelers best interest to have the Titans win. That would still keep the Titans eliminating the Texans for us and give the Steelers the chance to control their own destiny last game if needed. Better to have 2 teams away from 1 loss out of the equation. As long as there are 5 & 6 loss teams ahead of us...We are on the outside looking in. Any team with 5 and/or 6 losses need to lose. The more we could get under 7 losses is to our advantage.

I see your line of thinking and it could be the best route to making it as long as the Broncos & Ravens drop 2. The Dolphins would eliminate the Titans & Texans by beating them and be #2 in the East eliminating the Jets. That would say the Jags would only have to drop 1 and be #5 seed. The Steelers would be up against the Dolphins & Broncos for #6 which we would win. Could be the back door if the Ravens lose 2.

If the Ravens don't drop 2...Won't work. Ravens losing twice is the first piece of the puzzle. Which looking at all the remaining games looks like the least likely to happen. Basing on that NOT happening...Dolphins lose 1 to us (9-7), Jets lose 1 (9-7), Jags lose 2 (Eliminated @ 8-8), Broncos lose 2 (9-7). Dolphins-Broncos-Steelers>>>#6 seed to Steelers. I'm assuming this is what you are thinking.

I'm for "muddying the waters" because if a 5 or 6 loss team takes the #5 the Steelers chances get ugly. If a 9-7 team take #5...I like our chances. I'm thinking more on the line of what has to happen first which is the Ravens losing 2 to be the #5 seed like you said. that is why I said Jets lose 2. Steelers win out. Dolphins lose to the Titans but the Dolphins beat the the Texans. Jets lose 2(Pick-Falcons,Colts, or Bengals). Jags lose 2(Pick-Colts,Patriots, or Browns). Titans beat the Dolphins but lose to the Chargers. Broncos lose 2(Pick-Raiders, Eagles, or Chiefs). That would give us #5 over Denver. "But" the Jets still might have to lose 2. :wink:

What I'm saying (and all of this is predicated on winning out, beating Miami on tie-break in the process, and at-worst both having 9-7 records) we can TOLERATE one Jets loss (rather than 2) IF BOTH MIA AND THE NYJ FINISH 9-7.

Obviously, we want the Jets to lose this weekend. I'm just saying that there is a scenario by which we can tolerate only one loss by the Jets.

The reason to root for Miami is that we want them finishing with at least an equal record to the Jets in the event that the Jets lose only one. This way MIA knocks the NYJ out of contention with us.
But I replied to your 9-7 tie with Denver for #5 seed. If it is only us and Denver for #5 seed than that means the Dolphins lost twice and that also means the Jets lost twice. Head to head only counts if all the teams are swept. So if it is say The Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, Jags or Texans...Our head to head is thrown out. In my opinion, it is better to have any 5 & 6 loss team drop as many as possible. It could only help the odds. Then come tie breaker time, maybe we come up against teams we beat. The more teams we have with 7 losses going into the final week the better. If it ends up that 9-7 is the best record behind the division winners...We have a shot! We just have to start playing playoff football and I don't know if that is possible.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-16-2009, 01:05 PM
Here are the games:

-----Game-----------------Needed
Steelers vs Green Bay ------ Steelers
Ravens vs Bears ----------- Bears
Miami vs Tennessee -------- Either (I think)
Jets vs Atlanta ------------- Atlanta
Jax vs Indy ---------------- Indy
Houston vs St. Louis ------- St. Louis (not needed, but will almost eliminate Houston)
Buffalo vs New England ----- Either (Buffalo loses, they're out, NE loses, well, NE lost :) )
Denver vs Oakland ---------- Oakland

By 4:15 the Steelers will know where they stand, not that it should matter, but if a few games go their way it may put a little extra pep in their step!

Pappy
We might be able to start smiling after the Thursday night game.

RuthlessBurgher
12-16-2009, 01:30 PM
Here are the games:

-----Game-----------------Needed
Steelers vs Green Bay ------ Steelers
Ravens vs Bears ----------- Bears
Miami vs Tennessee -------- Either (I think)
Jets vs Atlanta ------------- Atlanta
Jax vs Indy ---------------- Indy
Houston vs St. Louis ------- St. Louis (not needed, but will almost eliminate Houston)
Buffalo vs New England ----- Either (Buffalo loses, they're out, NE loses, well, NE lost :) )
Denver vs Oakland ---------- Oakland

By 4:15 the Steelers will know where they stand, not that it should matter, but if a few games go their way it may put a little extra pep in their step!

Pappy
We might be able to start smiling after the Thursday night game.

That's what I thought last Thursday night. Needless to say, it didn't happen.

NC Steeler Fan
12-16-2009, 02:01 PM
I'm glad that I'm not the only who hasn't given up on this season just yet. Since, the game has been moved back to 4:15 the Steelers will know if anything good has happened before they play. If some of the teams that need to lose have lost, I hope the Steelers can muster up more of an effort than they did against the Browns.

I firmly believe that a 9-7 team is going to make the playoffs this year (maybe two). No AFC teams are playing good football right now except for the Colts and Chargers. Teams are going to lose games, I just hope it isn't the Steelers.

Pappy

Pappy, there are few posters on this board I respect as much as you. Despite all of the emotion and angst that has been shown as of late, you have been a source of reason and calmness. However, I have to disagree with your premise. If this team had been fighting for the past five weeks to get to 6-7 and stay in the playoff hunt then I would say the 4:15 start is an added incentive. However, the way they have played since Denver, they should not be looking to the scoreboard for any help. In my opinion they need to acknowledge that after a 6-2 start they put themselves in this predicament and may deserve to be at home during the playoffs.

This is totally where I am at with the Steelers. Nobody got the benefit of a blown call that swung these games, etc., etc., there aren't any excuses...we flat out played like crap.

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 03:35 PM
[quote=SteelAbility]BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.
I know how the tie breakers work. 1 Jets loss put them at 9-7. Why would we want that? They could throw out the head-to-head sweep tie breaker. I actually looked into remaining games more and the Dolphins & Titans can't finish 9-7 in our best interest. Dolphins & Titans play Sunday. It is in the Steelers best interest to have the Titans win. That would still keep the Titans eliminating the Texans for us and give the Steelers the chance to control their own destiny last game if needed. Better to have 2 teams away from 1 loss out of the equation. As long as there are 5 & 6 loss teams ahead of us...We are on the outside looking in. Any team with 5 and/or 6 losses need to lose. The more we could get under 7 losses is to our advantage.

I see your line of thinking and it could be the best route to making it as long as the Broncos & Ravens drop 2. The Dolphins would eliminate the Titans & Texans by beating them and be #2 in the East eliminating the Jets. That would say the Jags would only have to drop 1 and be #5 seed. The Steelers would be up against the Dolphins & Broncos for #6 which we would win. Could be the back door if the Ravens lose 2.

If the Ravens don't drop 2...Won't work. Ravens losing twice is the first piece of the puzzle. Which looking at all the remaining games looks like the least likely to happen. Basing on that NOT happening...Dolphins lose 1 to us (9-7), Jets lose 1 (9-7), Jags lose 2 (Eliminated @ 8-8), Broncos lose 2 (9-7). Dolphins-Broncos-Steelers>>>#6 seed to Steelers. I'm assuming this is what you are thinking.

I'm for "muddying the waters" because if a 5 or 6 loss team takes the #5 the Steelers chances get ugly. If a 9-7 team take #5...I like our chances. I'm thinking more on the line of what has to happen first which is the Ravens losing 2 to be the #5 seed like you said. that is why I said Jets lose 2. Steelers win out. Dolphins lose to the Titans but the Dolphins beat the the Texans. Jets lose 2(Pick-Falcons,Colts, or Bengals). Jags lose 2(Pick-Colts,Patriots, or Browns). Titans beat the Dolphins but lose to the Chargers. Broncos lose 2(Pick-Raiders, Eagles, or Chiefs). That would give us #5 over Denver. "But" the Jets still might have to lose 2. :wink:

What I'm saying (and all of this is predicated on winning out, beating Miami on tie-break in the process, and at-worst both having 9-7 records) we can TOLERATE one Jets loss (rather than 2) IF BOTH MIA AND THE NYJ FINISH 9-7.

Obviously, we want the Jets to lose this weekend. I'm just saying that there is a scenario by which we can tolerate only one loss by the Jets.

The reason to root for Miami is that we want them finishing with at least an equal record to the Jets in the event that the Jets lose only one. This way MIA knocks the NYJ out of contention with us.

But I replied to your 9-7 tie with Denver for #5 seed. If it is only us and Denver for #5 seed than that means the Dolphins lost twice and that also means the Jets lost twice. Head to head only counts if all the teams are swept. So if it is say The Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, Jags or Texans...Our head to head is thrown out. In my opinion, it is better to have any 5 & 6 loss team drop as many as possible. It could only help the odds. Then come tie breaker time, maybe we come up against teams we beat. The more teams we have with 7 losses going into the final week the better. If it ends up that 9-7 is the best record behind the division winners...We have a shot! We just have to start playing playoff football and I don't know if that is possible.[/quote:2ni4nnsr]

Not following that statement. Are you saying that if it is us and MIA and DEN in a 3-way tie at 9-7 the head-to-head is thrown out and some other method of tie-break occurs?

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-16-2009, 03:52 PM
[quote=SteelAbility]BTW, we only need the Jets to lose 1 game as long as MIA also finishes 9-7. MIA holds the tie-break over the NYJ. The inter-division tie-breaks are done FIRST, then the cross-division tie-breaks are done. MIA beat the NYJ twice, so a 9-7 MIA advances.

So, basically, add rooting for MIA into the mix, all except for their final game, of course.
I know how the tie breakers work. 1 Jets loss put them at 9-7. Why would we want that? They could throw out the head-to-head sweep tie breaker. I actually looked into remaining games more and the Dolphins & Titans can't finish 9-7 in our best interest. Dolphins & Titans play Sunday. It is in the Steelers best interest to have the Titans win. That would still keep the Titans eliminating the Texans for us and give the Steelers the chance to control their own destiny last game if needed. Better to have 2 teams away from 1 loss out of the equation. As long as there are 5 & 6 loss teams ahead of us...We are on the outside looking in. Any team with 5 and/or 6 losses need to lose. The more we could get under 7 losses is to our advantage.

I see your line of thinking and it could be the best route to making it as long as the Broncos & Ravens drop 2. The Dolphins would eliminate the Titans & Texans by beating them and be #2 in the East eliminating the Jets. That would say the Jags would only have to drop 1 and be #5 seed. The Steelers would be up against the Dolphins & Broncos for #6 which we would win. Could be the back door if the Ravens lose 2.

If the Ravens don't drop 2...Won't work. Ravens losing twice is the first piece of the puzzle. Which looking at all the remaining games looks like the least likely to happen. Basing on that NOT happening...Dolphins lose 1 to us (9-7), Jets lose 1 (9-7), Jags lose 2 (Eliminated @ 8-8), Broncos lose 2 (9-7). Dolphins-Broncos-Steelers>>>#6 seed to Steelers. I'm assuming this is what you are thinking.

I'm for "muddying the waters" because if a 5 or 6 loss team takes the #5 the Steelers chances get ugly. If a 9-7 team take #5...I like our chances. I'm thinking more on the line of what has to happen first which is the Ravens losing 2 to be the #5 seed like you said. that is why I said Jets lose 2. Steelers win out. Dolphins lose to the Titans but the Dolphins beat the the Texans. Jets lose 2(Pick-Falcons,Colts, or Bengals). Jags lose 2(Pick-Colts,Patriots, or Browns). Titans beat the Dolphins but lose to the Chargers. Broncos lose 2(Pick-Raiders, Eagles, or Chiefs). That would give us #5 over Denver. "But" the Jets still might have to lose 2. :wink:

What I'm saying (and all of this is predicated on winning out, beating Miami on tie-break in the process, and at-worst both having 9-7 records) we can TOLERATE one Jets loss (rather than 2) IF BOTH MIA AND THE NYJ FINISH 9-7.

Obviously, we want the Jets to lose this weekend. I'm just saying that there is a scenario by which we can tolerate only one loss by the Jets.

The reason to root for Miami is that we want them finishing with at least an equal record to the Jets in the event that the Jets lose only one. This way MIA knocks the NYJ out of contention with us.

But I replied to your 9-7 tie with Denver for #5 seed. If it is only us and Denver for #5 seed than that means the Dolphins lost twice and that also means the Jets lost twice. Head to head only counts if all the teams are swept. So if it is say The Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, Jags or Texans...Our head to head is thrown out. In my opinion, it is better to have any 5 & 6 loss team drop as many as possible. It could only help the odds. Then come tie breaker time, maybe we come up against teams we beat. The more teams we have with 7 losses going into the final week the better. If it ends up that 9-7 is the best record behind the division winners...We have a shot! We just have to start playing playoff football and I don't know if that is possible.

Not following that statement. Are you saying that if it is us and MIA and DEN in a 3-way tie at 9-7 the head-to-head is thrown out and some other method of tie-break occurs?[/quote:1b8h6p75]

No, see above. Just say for example...The Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, and Jags all end up 9-7. Doesn't matter we beat the Broncos & Dolphins...It isn't a sweep. SO they go to conference record.

SteelAbility
12-16-2009, 05:12 PM
Ok, JPN, I see what you are saying. I wasn't aware of the 3-or-more tie-breaks. However, three scenarios

SCENARIO 1
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses two (finishing 8-8)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We go to a tie-break with the NYJ and lose.


SCENARIO 2
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

MIA over NYJ (inter-division) and PIT over MIA (cross division)


SCENARIO 3
- JAX loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We lose out on conference record to pretty much everyone.


HOWEVER, Denver has OAK and KC both at home. So, I'm going to say that SCENARIO 1 and SCENARIO 2 are each way more likely than SCENARIO 3 and, of course, collectively even more likely than individually. Given that, it makes sense to root for SCENARIO 2. If Miami keeps winning, then all we need is one Jets loss (in addition to the already needed help with the BAL and JAX)

Unfortunately MIA plays at 1:00 and DEN plays at 4:00. So, for that game, the rooting can go both ways. Nonetheless, I think the percentages favor rooting form MIA to win.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-17-2009, 12:02 PM
Ok, JPN, I see what you are saying. I wasn't aware of the 3-or-more tie-breaks. However, three scenarios

SCENARIO 1
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses two (finishing 8-8)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We go to a tie-break with the NYJ and lose.


SCENARIO 2
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

MIA over NYJ (inter-division) and PIT over MIA (cross division)


SCENARIO 3
- JAX loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We lose out on conference record to pretty much everyone.


HOWEVER, Denver has OAK and KC both at home. So, I'm going to say that SCENARIO 1 and SCENARIO 2 are each way more likely than SCENARIO 3 and, of course, collectively even more likely than individually. Given that, it makes sense to root for SCENARIO 2. If Miami keeps winning, then all we need is one Jets loss (in addition to the already needed help with the BAL and JAX)

Unfortunately MIA plays at 1:00 and DEN plays at 4:00. So, for that game, the rooting can go both ways. Nonetheless, I think the percentages favor rooting form MIA to win.

Ok, JPN, I see what you are saying. I wasn't aware of the 3-or-more tie-breaks. However, three scenarios

SCENARIO 1
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses two (finishing 8-8)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We go to a tie-break with the NYJ and lose.


SCENARIO 2
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN wins two or more (finishing 10-6 or 11-5)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

MIA over NYJ (inter-division) and PIT over MIA (cross division)


SCENARIO 3
- JAX loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7) or two (finishing 8-8)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We lose out on conference record to pretty much everyone.


HOWEVER, Denver has OAK and KC both at home. So, I'm going to say that SCENARIO 1 and SCENARIO 2 are each way more likely than SCENARIO 3 and, of course, collectively even more likely than individually. Given that, it makes sense to root for SCENARIO 2. If Miami keeps winning, then all we need is one Jets loss (in addition to the already needed help with the BAL and JAX)

Unfortunately MIA plays at 1:00 and DEN plays at 4:00. So, for that game, the rooting can go both ways. Nonetheless, I think the percentages favor rooting form MIA to win.
Are you getting a headache too? :wink:
Good stuff!

Scenario 1-We still can get in if the Jets lose to the Bengals. That would take it to strength of victory and even with the Jets beating Atlanta & the Colts we should win that tie breaker. As it sits right now, we have +10 wins by teams we beat & the Steelers winning out with the Jets losing to the Bengals.

Scenario 2- Correct. We get #6 seed.

SCENARIO 3A
- JAX loses one (finishing 9-7)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We miss out. Jags @ #5 & BAL,DEN,MIA fight it out for #6.

SCENARIO 3B
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses ONE (to us) (finishing 9-7)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

We could get in here as long as BAL goes #5 seed.

SCENARIO 3C
- JAX loses two (finishing 8-8)
- BAL loses one (finishing 9-7)
- DEN loses two (finishing 9-7)
- MIA loses two (finishing 8-8)
- NYJ lose one (finishing 9-7)

Still could make it depending on conference loses. The more important thing is we can do no better than #6 because of the 1 loss by BAL.

For any of this to work, we need to win out, which I believe is the least likely to happen. The next thing least likely to happen is the Ravens lose 2. So, that means we can do no better than #6 seed. There is only 3 games left and alot of teams better than 7 losses. So, any time a team playing with less than 7 losses against a team with 7 or more...I'm routing against them. As long as we are 3rd in the division, I'm pulling for every team with less than 7 losses to lose. What if you get your wish and the Dolphins beat the Titans. Then the Texans beat the Dolphins and finish 9-7. Jets lose one and now we got 2 teams we didn't play in the 9-7 pool. I like having the Titans bringing the Dolphins to 7 losses. Then the Dolphins taking care of the Texans. Titans can lose or not because they can't hurt us. We have head to head and they have 7 losses in conference. If we end up tied we will be ahead of them no matter what if they are against us. Route for the Jets to lose 2. If they don't we still have a shot if the lose to the Bengals or by strength of victory if Denver is in there with 6 conference losses. I just see not wasting any opportunity for a team with less losses to get another. After it is all said and done you might be able to go back and say it would have been better if this happened...My way or your way. Numbers can't be in our favor with teams sitting there with less losses and the games ticking away. Just the way I see it.

SteelAbility
12-17-2009, 02:44 PM
Ok, now I truly have a headache. So much for the definitive part. :oops: The decision tree is actually quite big at this point. After this weekend it should simplify quite a bit.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-17-2009, 03:40 PM
Ok, now I truly have a headache. So much for the definitive part. :oops: The decision tree is actually quite big at this point. After this weekend it should simplify quite a bit.
The weekend coming to an end could be better then Excederin.

I just want to see the Steelers get back to the ball I know they can play. We will know if there is any hope this week...Because if the half a$$ it against the Packers, it could get ugly. If it starts to get ugly, Tomlin better earn back some creditability in that game by benching some vets...Not wait until the following week. I like Tomlin but the big speech after the Raiders lost was an empty promise. All Bark...No bite. He wants to show he is control of this team, the time will be during the Packers game if they are getting their egos shined. I also better see him confronting coaches if things are going bad not walking around looking at the big screen. Jerk their chain Tomlin...You got some players & coaches getting too close to the end of their run.

One thing is for certain no matter which way you & I think is the best route to the playoffs....We can agree to cheer against the Jags, Broncos, & even more important....The Ravens. Two losses by the ravens could open up the door to 5 or 6 seed if 9-7 is the best behind the divisional winners. Hopefully the Ravens leave the door open again and we see some Steeler football.

SteelAbility
12-17-2009, 06:12 PM
Ok, now I truly have a headache. So much for the definitive part. :oops: The decision tree is actually quite big at this point. After this weekend it should simplify quite a bit.
The weekend coming to an end could be better then Excederin.

I just want to see the Steelers get back to the ball I know they can play. We will know if there is any hope this week...Because if the half a$$ it against the Packers, it could get ugly. If it starts to get ugly, Tomlin better earn back some creditability in that game by benching some vets...Not wait until the following week. I like Tomlin but the big speech after the Raiders lost was an empty promise. All Bark...No bite. He wants to show he is control of this team, the time will be during the Packers game if they are getting their egos shined. I also better see him confronting coaches if things are going bad not walking around looking at the big screen. Jerk their chain Tomlin...You got some players & coaches getting too close to the end of their run.

One thing is for certain no matter which way you & I think is the best route to the playoffs....We can agree to cheer against the Jags, Broncos, & even more important....The Ravens. Two losses by the ravens could open up the door to 5 or 6 seed if 9-7 is the best behind the divisional winners. Hopefully the Ravens leave the door open again and we see some Steeler football.

Hah! I was thinking the exact same thing myself.

The biggest help is BAL and JAX each losing two. Those are the two main things to watch. Tonight is HUGE as IND is unmotivated from a seeding point of view but hopefully motivated for 16-0 and a shot at "the greatest team ever." JAX is at NE next, who is still motivated. NE is way different at home versus on the road. The BAL one is the tough one. Other than us they have CHI, who has been crapping the bed almost worse than us and at OAK (which has proven to be tougher than teams think). But Gradkowski went down for the count and they are left with Charlie Frye. At least Frye will get a couple games under his belt and some rhythm before playing BAL (assuming he doesn't go down too).

SteelAbility
12-18-2009, 01:12 AM
Huge result with IND beating JAX. Now JAX has to go on the road to NE where NE is motivated and a completely different team at home than on the road. We MUST have that result as JAX finishes out with CLE at home.

The following will give us control over our own destiny ...

JAX loss to NE (Week 16)
BAL loss to CHI (Week 15)
One AFC loss by the NYJ

On another very positive note, I liked what I saw in the IND game tonight. It looks like IND is hungry for the undefeated season. Manning/Wayne/Clark all looked like they really wanted the W. Next up for IND is the NYJ. That could very well be the one AFC loss by the NYJ that we need.

JTP53609
12-18-2009, 08:40 AM
Huge result with IND beating JAX. Now JAX has to go on the road to NE where NE is motivated and a completely different team at home than on the road. We MUST have that result as JAX finishes out with CLE at home.

The following will give us control over our own destiny ...

JAX loss to NE (Week 16)
BAL loss to CHI (Week 15)
One AFC loss by the NYJ

On another very positive note, I liked what I saw in the IND game tonight. It looks like IND is hungry for the undefeated season. Manning/Wayne/Clark all looked like they really wanted the W. Next up for IND is the NYJ. That could very well be the one AFC loss by the NYJ that we need.

your right steel, that is all we need, and it baltimore beats the bears we can still get in if they lose the raiders too, or if the broncos lose 2.......this week we need to cheer for charlie frye and the raiders as much as we cheer for any steeler game, bc if the broncos lose that than they will also lose at philly next week.....of course we need to win out though

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-18-2009, 09:25 AM
Huge result with IND beating JAX. Now JAX has to go on the road to NE where NE is motivated and a completely different team at home than on the road. We MUST have that result as JAX finishes out with CLE at home.

The following will give us control over our own destiny ...

JAX loss to NE (Week 16)
BAL loss to CHI (Week 15)
One AFC loss by the NYJ

On another very positive note, I liked what I saw in the IND game tonight. It looks like IND is hungry for the undefeated season. Manning/Wayne/Clark all looked like they really wanted the W. Next up for IND is the NYJ. That could very well be the one AFC loss by the NYJ that we need.
You got that right. One piece of the puzzle. Now we need a win against GB and some more pieces to fall in place by the end of the weekend.

JTP53609
12-18-2009, 09:32 AM
if cutler plays against the rats the way he did against us i think they have a 50/50 shot at least....especially if reed cant go, oh boy i will be tuned into that game like it is a steeler game, if they pull that out than i feel GREAT about what has transpired, ....
all we have to do is win out (bc the jets will lose to either the colts or bungles and the jags will lose next week)

papillon
12-18-2009, 09:40 AM
As of right now, the Ravens control their own destiny. The Steelers need some very conceivable things to happen this weekend and next to be playing Miami in a win and your in game.

Pappy

NWNewell
12-18-2009, 09:40 AM
Huge result with IND beating JAX. Now JAX has to go on the road to NE where NE is motivated and a completely different team at home than on the road. We MUST have that result as JAX finishes out with CLE at home.

The following will give us control over our own destiny ...

JAX loss to NE (Week 16)
BAL loss to CHI (Week 15)
One AFC loss by the NYJ

On another very positive note, I liked what I saw in the IND game tonight. It looks like IND is hungry for the undefeated season. Manning/Wayne/Clark all looked like they really wanted the W. Next up for IND is the NYJ. That could very well be the one AFC loss by the NYJ that we need.
You got that right. One piece of the puzzle. Now we need a win against GB and some more pieces to fall in place by the end of the weekend.

Sadly, I think the most difficult part of the equation is us winning out. If we an scrape together a win against GB, then I 'll start believing.

But I haven't seen signs of life in over a month.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-18-2009, 09:48 AM
Huge result with IND beating JAX. Now JAX has to go on the road to NE where NE is motivated and a completely different team at home than on the road. We MUST have that result as JAX finishes out with CLE at home.

The following will give us control over our own destiny ...

JAX loss to NE (Week 16)
BAL loss to CHI (Week 15)
One AFC loss by the NYJ

On another very positive note, I liked what I saw in the IND game tonight. It looks like IND is hungry for the undefeated season. Manning/Wayne/Clark all looked like they really wanted the W. Next up for IND is the NYJ. That could very well be the one AFC loss by the NYJ that we need.
You got that right. One piece of the puzzle. Now we need a win against GB and some more pieces to fall in place by the end of the weekend.

Sadly, I think the most difficult part of the equation is us winning out. If we an scrape together a win against GB, then I 'll start believing.

But I haven't seen signs of life in over a month.
I agree. If you look back at my post you will see that is ranked as my "least" likely thing to happen. But if they can beat GB...I guess we would have to say there is at least a pulse.

JTP53609
12-18-2009, 10:24 AM
well, we get to watch football with more of purpose than just watching our beloved steelers know that we have got no shot....

i will take a down year anytime after winning a super bowl, if that is what it takes....but i will still whine about things on that down year like losing to the chiefs, raiders and browns :HeadBanger

pfelix73
12-18-2009, 10:41 AM
Funny how one fan base of a team with 7 losses (us) believes in no hope for the post season, while another team with 7 losses (Jax. or Tenn.) still has all the hope in the world- perspectives, I guess. 5 losses in a row will do that, but to be realistic, IF they can find a way to get to 9-7 they have an excellent shot at making that #6 seed.

:tt1

SteelAbility
12-18-2009, 10:42 AM
UPDATED Needs Below (IND over JAX was huge)

1. Win out to a 9-7 record (in the process, we get the tie-break over MIA and give a loss to BAL)

2 JAX to lose any one (@NE, CLE). NE is motivated and is 7-0 at home. Can't believe I'll be rooting for NE to win. :roll:

3. NYJ to lose any two (ATL, @IND, CIN) We need to be rooting for the Bengals to be motivated for that final game (for a 2 seed preferably). CIN plays SD next week. If CIN wins, then the race between CIN and SD for #2 is on and both teams will remain motivated to keep winning. WE ABSOLUTELY NEED TO BE ROOTING FOR CIN OVER SD THIS WEEKEND. Otherwise, I'm sure if CIN's playoff seed is locked, they'd be more than glad to lay one down and guarantee a Steeler knockout blow. ATL is struggling but still tough. Let's hope IND gets to slobbering over a 16-0 run.

OR

NYJ to lose one conference game. We would beat them on tie-break (strength of schedule)

OR

NYJ to lose one non-conference game as long as both they and MIA end with a 9-7 record and no team in another division finishes 9-7 as the head-to-head tiebreak would be supplanted by a 3-or more tie-break where we lose out on conference record). MIA would beat them on inter-division tie-break. We would then beat MIA on cross-division tie-break due to head-to-head record.

4. BAL to lose one other (either CHI or @OAK) OR Denver to lose any two (OAK, @PHI, KC). I think this actually the least likely even though it is an OR involved. I believe CHI at BAL is the best chance here. This is the other big result to watch for this weekend.

Denver is actually a bit tricky. There is a case where, if Denver finishes 9-7, it can actually hurt us as it would introduce 3-or-more tie-breaks where we would normally win on head-to-head. IMO, Denver winning two or more actually favors us.

Big results to watch this week in order of importance ...

1. IND vs JAX (root for IND) Done. IND won.
2 CHI vs. BAL (root for CHI; this would be HUGE)
3. NYJ vs. ATL (root for ATL; ATL is still motivated with a shot at the playoffs)
4. OAK vs. DEN (I'm changing stance, I actually think a DEN win helps our chances)
5. CIN vs. SD (root for CIN, to keep #2 seed in doubt and CIN motivated for Week 17 against the NYJ)
6. MIA vs. TEN (I've changed stance, albeit slightly, here also. Tough call whom to root for here as both results could help us or hurt us as the 3-or-more tie-break is kept alive no matter what) IMO, given the upcoming matchups, etc., a MIA win slightly favors us as compared to a TEN win.

Steeler Mafia
12-18-2009, 10:54 AM
"What We Need To Get Into The Playoffs"

1) A wing

2) A prayer

Thanks to the Indy Colts last night, we have a few feathers on that wing.

NC Steeler Fan
12-18-2009, 11:01 AM
Okay, hopefully, without drawing the ire of some of you because it's already posted
and I missed it, but... :oops:

Who do we gotta pull for this weekend? :D

OOPS!!!! NEVERMIND! I just saw it posted immediately above!!!

pfelix73
12-18-2009, 11:48 AM
The STEELERS.

:tt1

JTP53609
12-18-2009, 12:02 PM
if we would of just beaten oakland, or cleveland, or kc...heck if we would of won all 3 we would be thinking #2 seed haha.....but hey, i will take 9-7 and a playoff birth....

based on what i saw of the indy defense last night, i dont think our secondary is the only one struggling, its just that they can put up points if and when they need to, they will not make it to the super bowl...

brothervad
12-18-2009, 07:16 PM
other than the Steelers winning out..the weakest link to this playoff scenario IMHO is the Ravens portion of the scenario.

I really think most of the what-if's will actually fall into place for the Steelers.

Even assuming the Steelers win out. The one I think that will not happen is the Ravens losing two games the rest of the way.

Chicago at home isn't likely to happen
Away at Oakland while you never know, isn't likely to happen.

Denver losing 2 isn't happening either...they aren't the Steelers and won't lose to Oak and KC at home. They will likely go 2-1 the rest of the way and finish at 10-6

so there you have it...Even if they win out they will lose to Balt both at 9-7.

Balt will have beaten us in Division record (3-3, 2-4) conference record (7-5, 6-6) and head to head will be 1-1.

(of course I doubt we will get past the Pack this Sunday so it will be moot at best ;) )

brothervad

DHSF
12-19-2009, 12:32 AM
I'm glad that there is still a glimmer of hope this weekend. I am a die hard Steeler fan, and whether the team goes 0-16 or 16-0, my loyalties will never change. That said, when the Steelers lost to the Raiders, I gave up on the season. I told my son that I was rooting for the Steelers to lose out to get a better draft next season under the emotion of the moment. Perhaps that was a bit premature, but I agree that the least likely event, given the recent play of this team, is for them to win out. I was disgusted that they lost to the Browns last week, but if they win vs GB Sunday, and the Ravens lose, they may still have a chance.

Shoe
12-20-2009, 02:19 PM
BTW, good job working this all out steelability. Granted you are a pipe-dreamer but it's appreciated. I can watch games according to your importance list now. :wink:

papillon
12-20-2009, 03:27 PM
Just to keep this thread near the top the following two games are at halftime, one is going the Steelers way (sort of) and one isn't.

NYJ: 7
ATL: 3

Tenn: 17
Mia: 6

The Jets don't want to take control of the game. Maybe, they'll let the Falcons hang around and lose late. They should be up at least 13-3 and probably 17-3.

Pappy

Shoe
12-20-2009, 04:52 PM
3. NYJ vs. ATL (root for ATL; ATL is still motivated with a shot at the playoffs)

ATL just scored, 1:38 to go, 10-7! :Cheers

papillon
12-20-2009, 04:58 PM
Intercepted with a minute to go and only one timeout for the Jets. The Falcons should be able to hold on.

The Dolphins scored and made a two point conversion to tie the Titans with 1:34 to go. I think the Steelers would rather have the Titans win this than Miami, but, either result is good for the Steelers I think.

Now, the Steelers have to do their part and win a stinking football game.

Pappy

brothervad
12-20-2009, 04:59 PM
Miami just tied 24-24

I really think we handle business against Miami it's irrelevant.

Jets loss pretty huge--not sure how the Texans fit in (haven't looked that close)...would like to see them get to 8 losses just to remove that whole 3 way + tiebreaker.

brothervad

Shoe
12-20-2009, 05:03 PM
The Dolphins scored and made a two point conversion to tie the Titans with 1:34 to go. I think the Steelers would rather have the Titans win this than Miami, but, either result is good for the Steelers I think.

How can either result be good? :wink: Who should I root for pap?

JTP53609
12-20-2009, 09:20 PM
rats
yoncos
jags
dolphins
jets
steelers


if the broncos lose to the eagles, jags lose to ne
dolphins lose to us and jets lose to the colts, were in....if we win out

Wolfhound45
12-20-2009, 09:53 PM
rats
yoncos
jags
dolphins
jets
steelers


if the broncos lose to the eagles, jags lose to ne
dolphins lose to us and jets lose to the colts, were in....if we win out

And I hate to admit it, but that is a very, very plausible scenario. Except the part about us winning out. Bottom line, our first play off game is next week in Heinz Field.

papillon
12-20-2009, 09:54 PM
If what I had posted earlier was accurate here's where we stand after this weekend. There were certainly some positive results for the Steelers.

-----Game-----------------Needed
Steelers vs Green Bay ------ Steelers - Done
Ravens vs Bears ----------- Bears - Not done, that's bad
Miami vs Tennessee -------- Either (I think) Tennessee, good I think
Jets vs Atlanta ------------- Atlanta - Done
Jax vs Indy ---------------- Indy - Done
Houston vs St. Louis ------- St. Louis - Not done, but shouldn't matter
Denver vs Oakland ---------- Oakland - Done

I'm not sure where this leaves the Steelers, but, it was a positive weekend.

Upcoming week games:

-------- Game --------------- Need ---
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore ----- Pittsburgh
San Diego vs Tennessee ---- San Diego
Houston vs Miami ----------- Miami (edited per ColumbusSteelerfan's analysis)
Jacksonville vs New England - New England
NY Jets vs Indy ------------- Indy
Denver vs Philly ------------- Philly

Other than ours I'm not sure which ones we have to have. I think Indy and New England are musts along with a win over the Ravens. Houston, San Diego and Philly would be icing on the cake, I think.

Pappy

SteelAbility
12-20-2009, 10:10 PM
If what I had posted earlier was accurate here's where we stand after this weekend. There were certainly some positive results for the Steelers.

-----Game-----------------Needed
Steelers vs Green Bay ------ Steelers - Done
Ravens vs Bears ----------- Bears - Not done, that's bad
Miami vs Tennessee -------- Either (I think) Tennessee, good I think
Jets vs Atlanta ------------- Atlanta - Done
Jax vs Indy ---------------- Indy - Done
Houston vs St. Louis ------- St. Louis - Not done, but shouldn't matter
Denver vs Oakland ---------- Oakland - Done

I'm not sure where this leaves the Steelers, but, it was a positive weekend.

Pappy

Here are the 7-7 teams ...

PIT 4-6 Conference
TEN 4-7 Conference
HOU 4-6 Conference
MIA 5-5 Conference
NYJ 5-5 Conference
JAX 6-4 Conference

8-6 teams ...

BAL 6-4 Conference
DEN 6-5 Conference

Assuming we win out and BAL does NOT lay an egg @OAK and DEN loses to PHI and beats KC at home, we would have

PIT 9-7 (6-6 Conference)
BAL 9-7 (7-5 Conference)
DEN 9-7 (7-5 Conference)

Not sure what happens on that 3-way tie-break. I THINK it goes to conference record, in which case we would lose out. However, both PIT and BAL beat DEN. I'm not sure what takes precedence. JUST-PLAIN-NASTY?

ColumbusSteelerFan
12-20-2009, 10:16 PM
Houston vs Miami ----------- Houston


I don't think this one is right. If Houston wins, they go 8-7 with a chance to go 9-7 and 6-6 in the conference if they beat NE in the final week. If they lose, they can't do any better than 8-8 and if the Steelers beat Miami, then they also can't do better than 8-8. This would be a better situation overall.

Shoe
12-20-2009, 10:39 PM
But basically, we can say that it allows us a meaningful Game 15, which at this point is all we could ask for. The Rats get a chance to KTFO of '09.