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OhiosteelFan
06-21-2009, 11:22 PM
I sometimes post over at postgameheroes site. Dutch's (pittlive guy) prediction on the Stanley Cup series was posted there by Dagger. Gotta hand it to ol smartmonies.

http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=6638

When the Penguins and Red Wings met last year in the Finals, I had not one doubt that Detroit would not only beat the Pens in the series, but they would do it with domination. Last years Detroit Red Wings were one of the great teams of all time. For a single season, they just might have been most powerful, efficient hockey machine
ever. They not only got more shots per game then any team in the league, they gave up the fewest shots per game as well. In fact their +11 shots on goal differential was the largest differential I could locate going back 20 years. Here is a quick glance of the shots on goal differential averages of all cup winners going back the early 90ís.

1991 pens 91-92 = 31-30 = +1
1992 pens 92-93 = 34-32 = +2
1993 Montreal 93-94 = 32-30 = +2
1994 New Jersey 94-95 = 30 - 25 = +5
1995 Colorado 95-96 = 32 - 28 = +4
1996 Detroit 96-97 = 33 - 25 = +8
1997 Detroit 97-98 = 30-25 = +5
1998 Dallas 98 99 = 27 - 23 = +4
1999 New Jersey 99-00 = 32 - 25 = +7
2000 Colorado = 00-01 = 29 - 25 = +4
2001 Detroit 01-02 = 30 -26 = +4
2002 New Jersey 02-03 = 31 - 23 = +8
2004 Tampa Bay 03-04 = 30 -25 = +5
2005 Carolina 05-06 = 31 - 30 = +1
2006 Anaheim 06-07 = 30 - 26 = +4
2007/2008 Red Wings +11

While shots on goal differential is the most important stat in terms of how it relates to winning in the playoffs, last years Wings didnít stop there. They also ranked best in numerous other categories like goals against average differential, best plus minus of any team, best face off %, most 5 on 4 goals, best record vs the Sagarin top ten teams, best win %
when outshooting an opponent, and more. Picking the Wings to win the series last year might have been the easiest pick I have ever made. There was no doubt about it.

So with that in mind, the question everyone is wondering is will this series be any different than last year? In order to make the best possible assessment of Wings/Pens II, lets compare last years Red Wings to this years Red Wings.

Shots on Goal differential

2007/08 Red Wings > +11 (34 shots per game - 23 shots per game)
2008/09 Red Wings > +8 (36 shots per game - 28 shots per game)

Face off percentage

2007/08 Red Wings > 53%
2008/09 Red Wings > 55%

5 on 5 goals for and against

2007/08 Red Wings > +1.41
2008/09 Red Wings > +1.21

Power play conversion %

2007/08 Red Wings > 20%
2008/09 Red Wings > 25%

Power play Kill %

2007/08 Red Wings > 84% (ranked 8th)
2008/09 Red Wings > 78% (ranked 25th)

Win % when out shooting Opponent

2007/08 Red Wings > 71% (ranked #1)
2008/09 Red Wings > 64% (ranked #3)

Record VS sagarin Top Ten teams

2007/08 Red Wings > 39 wins 15 losses
2008/09 Red Wings > 22 wins 14 losses

Win % when scoring 1st in a game

2007/08 Red Wings > 86%
2008/09 Red Wings > 81%

Goals against Average Differential

2007/08 Red Wings > 3.52 - 2.52 = +.59
2008/09 Red Wings > 3.07 - 2.18 = +.89

Shooting %

2007/08 Red Wings > 9.2%
2008/09 Red Wings > 9.8%

Shooting % allowed

2007/08 Red Wings > 9.3%
2008/09 Red Wings > 10.3%

Goals allowed by period

2007/08 Red Wings

1st period > 64
2nd Period > 82
3rd Period > 63

2008/09 Red Wings

1st Period > 82
2nd period > 87
3rd period > 97

Goals scored by period

2007/08 Red Wings

1st period > 99
2nd Period > 106
3rd Period > 100

2008/09 Red Wings

1st Period > 95
2nd Period > 125
3rd Period > 123

Looking at the above comparison between this years Redwings and last years team, it is clear where the difference is. The difference is that the Red Wings Defense isnít as dominant. They are more offensive minded than last season. I believe Niklas Kronwall said in a postgame interview early in the season that the Wings needed to tighten up their shots against. Well, that never really happened. To further illustrate this point, just look below at the following numbers. These numbers represent all of the Shots Allowed by Detroit in the previous playoff games leading up to game 1 against the Pens. Included are this years and last years stats for comparison.


2007/08 Redwings shots allowed (game by game) 1st three rounds of the playoffs

20
27
29
27
21
20
21
20
33
31
21
18
18
22
21
29

10 Games allowing 22 shots per game or less

Only 2 games over 30 Shots per game

2009/09 Redwings shots allowed (game by game) 1st three rounds of the playoffs

21
25
32
32
24
46
23
28
17
28
27
32
39
27
28

Only 2 game allowing 22 Shots per game or less this post season

The Wings defense isnít what it was a year ago and based on that alone, we can expect the Pens to have a little more room on the ice than they did season. That isnít the only good news for the Penguins though. The Pens were dead last in shots per game until Dan Bylsma showed up and were only getting 27 shots on net per game. Since Bylsma took over, the Pens are cooking with 34 shots a game. This dramatic 8 shot swing would be the difference in being ranked dead last in the league to ranked about 2nd best in this stat category.

Plain and simpleÖ.Bylsma gets it. He understands that you canít win Cups by getting outshot. Captain Sidney Crosby bought in and he often talks about how his team is out-chancing the other team during interviews conducted between periods. I cannot understate how important this is. Playoff hockey is not about Fancy goals (Malkinís goal notwithstanding) itís about getting pucks to the net. And no team does that better than Detroit. Thatís why this change in philosophy with the Pens new head coach was paramount in the penguins revival. Great move by Ray Shero to make this move.

Shots on goal differential

Detroit > +8
Pens > +6.5 since Bylsma! (-2 Before Bylsma)

Face off % in playoffs

Detroit > 52%
2007/08 Pens > 47%
2008/09 Pens > 50%

Shots allowed per game

Detroit > 28 shots allowed per game
Pens > 28 Shots allowed per game

Last year the Red wings only allowed 15% of opponents power plays to be converted. This year they have slipped to a subpar 23% allowed. They have allowed 26% in the playoffs. With the once struggling Penguin power play finally seeing a breakthrough at 24% success rate in their last 5 games, this could be an area the Pens could exploit.

Summary

Unlike Last year, the Penguins are going to get their shots. Will they outshoot Detroit? Most likely no, but they donít have to. As long as they are competitive in the shots battle (which I believe they will be) , then their superior shooting % will make up for the rest. The Pens should see more room on the ice than last year, although much less room than what the Canes, Caps, and Flyers offered.

The Red Wings offense is a juggernaut, however, and they will never be out of a game no matter what the score is which means Fluery will have his toughest assignment of the postseason. It wonít be good enough for him to just stop a few quality shots; the Wings will be bring tons of shots and he will need to be very consistent and will need to take his game to another level. Another fun stat is that no team has defeated Detroit in the past 5 years in the playoffs without at least a .925 save %.

Crosbyís improved ability to win faceoffís will also be huge. Winning faceoffís leads to puck possession and eventually to more shots for your team and less for the opponent.

Conclusion

This Series will be incredible. This is like Lakers vs Celtics, Cowboys vs Steelers. The numbers show that while Detroit has slipped defensively a bit, they are still a great great team that is worthy of back-to-back championships. I would pick Detroit to win only if they werenít playing against the next dynasty in the NHL. 1 year ago, the Pens werenít readyÖbut they are now. The Red Wings arenít ready to pass the torch so the Pens will have to go out there and take it from them and I believe defending champions are vulnerable in a 7th game. Uneasy lies the head who wears the crown.

Oh well, Hope Iím right. Pens in 7.

Djfan
06-23-2009, 02:13 AM
Wow! Like him. Hate him. This is dead on.

Lambert
06-24-2009, 06:28 PM
Wow! Like him. Hate him. This is dead on.

He's talented. He nailed last years cup as well. He had wings in 6.

SanAntonioSteelerFan
06-24-2009, 06:46 PM
Wow! Like him. Hate him. This is dead on.

He's talented. He nailed last years cup as well. He had wings in 6.

And he's working on his humility too!

RuthlessBurgher
06-24-2009, 08:18 PM
Wow! Like him. Hate him. This is dead on.

He's talented. He nailed last years cup as well. He had wings in 6.

And he's working on his humility too!

It is difficult to remain humble when the folks at The Steelers Forum thought so highly of his knowledge that they devoted an 11 page Photoshop thread in honor of his absolute greatness!!!

He's so popular he needs 4 aliases that talk to and about each other. OhiosteelFan starts a thread about Dutch a.k.a. Smartmonies. Then Lambert responds! It's like watching the movie "Sybil"

http://www.freewebs.com/smartdealership/smcard.jpg

http://www.breckstewart.com/general/book/EvilDRM/Equals_Sign_203X300.jpg

http://www.leeannrubsam.com/images/dutch-boy-icon.jpg

http://www.breckstewart.com/general/book/EvilDRM/Equals_Sign_203X300.jpg

http://tonicgossip.com/wp-content/adam-lambert-18.jpg

http://www.breckstewart.com/general/book/EvilDRM/Equals_Sign_203X300.jpg

http://c3.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/5/s_41e39be93590589dd7af8bac6d66cef6.png

Lambert
06-24-2009, 09:01 PM
Wow! Like him. Hate him. This is dead on.

He's talented. He nailed last years cup as well. He had wings in 6.

And he's working on his humility too!

It is difficult to remain humble when the folks at The Steelers Forum thought so highly of his knowledge that they devoted an 11 page Photoshop thread in honor of his absolute greatness!!!

He's so popular he needs 4 aliases that talk to and about each other. OhiosteelFan starts a thread about Dutch a.k.a. Smartmonies. Then Lambert responds! It's like watching the movie "Sybil"



He's interviewing SB Coaches and your giving credit to a forum that sits in their moms basement and draws Gayish photo's. You should be ashamed of yourself. :HeadBanger

Great prediction by him though. Pens in 7. Give it up! :Beer

stlrz d
06-24-2009, 09:06 PM
Dude, we know it's you. Drop the charade.

SanAntonioSteelerFan
06-24-2009, 10:16 PM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

buckeyehoppy
06-27-2009, 11:59 AM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

Don't spend much time worrying about MSM's predictions. I nailed the Stanley Cup finals before the season even began with the accurate number of games. My humility factor...I picked the Dead Wings to repeat. Oh well. I enjoyed the outcome better.

I also said the Steelers would win it all last year from the start of the season. The trip to training camp clinched my thought. Getting to see the team under non-game conditions and how they conducted themselves reinforced what I already suspected.

The Steelers, given good health and a resolute focus, should be able to repeat as SB Champions.

Jom112
07-15-2009, 09:28 PM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948)

:stirpot

fordfixer
07-15-2009, 09:43 PM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948)

:stirpot


Great find Jom did you have them book marked or spend hours looking for them?

Jom112
07-15-2009, 11:35 PM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948)

:stirpot


Great find Jom did you have them book marked or spend hours looking for them?

It didn't take too long to find them.

Although I should bookmark them. Methinks they'll come in handy again later...

fordfixer
07-16-2009, 01:42 AM
MSM - Did you really predict the Steelers would only win 8 or 9 games last year?

That's the most important prediction you've made in my eyes. Congrats on whatever else you may have nailed, I'd be very impressed if this were a Pens forum or something.

I predicted a Super Bowl win for the Steelers before the season began last year. My system must be better than yours! :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1155)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948 (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=948)

:stirpot


Great find Jom did you have them book marked or spend hours looking for them?

It didn't take too long to find them.

Although I should bookmark them. Methinks they'll come in handy again later...


:lol: :lol: could happen

eniparadoxgma
07-17-2009, 01:02 AM
Great stuff. :tt2 :tt2 :tt2

mshifko
08-09-2009, 05:52 PM
never understood why so many people disliked smartmonies..i always liked him..

anyone who digs up that many stats, puts that much time into things, i respect...

Jom112
08-12-2009, 06:34 PM
never understood why so many people disliked smartmonies..i always liked him..

anyone who digs up that many stats, puts that much time into things, i respect...

Disagree with him in a thread and you'll find out why...

Shawn
01-01-2010, 12:52 PM
never understood why so many people disliked smartmonies..i always liked him..

anyone who digs up that many stats, puts that much time into things, i respect...

I speak with Dutch regularly through email and on my site. Whether you like his style or not you can't deny a few facts. The guy is writing stories for the Herald. He has a radio show and just recently interviewed Big Ben...which may be the best interview of Ben I have ever heard. Most of his predictions are dead on. I respect his knowledge and research and actually find him quite personable. Am I MSM also? Good for you mshifko for thinking for yourself.

Djfan
01-01-2010, 02:44 PM
Wow! Who dug up this thread?

Shawn
01-01-2010, 03:21 PM
Wow! Who dug up this thread?

According to the dates...that would be me. I wouldn't say it was "dug up". It was on page 2.

fordfixer
01-03-2010, 10:22 AM
Wow! Who dug up this thread?

According to the dates...that would be me. I wouldn't say it was "dug up". It was on page 2.
Welcome back Shawn :tt1

Shawn
01-03-2010, 11:17 AM
Wow! Who dug up this thread?

According to the dates...that would be me. I wouldn't say it was "dug up". It was on page 2.
Welcome back Shawn :tt1

Thanks.

eniparadoxgma
01-03-2010, 07:31 PM
http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/7234/wiki001.jpg (http://img43.imageshack.us/i/wiki001.jpg/)

:tt2 :tt2 :tt2

costanza2k1
01-05-2010, 01:15 AM
never understood why so many people disliked smartmonies..i always liked him..

anyone who digs up that many stats, puts that much time into things, i respect...

I speak with Dutch regularly through email and on my site. Whether you like his style or not you can't deny a few facts. The guy is writing stories for the Herald. He has a radio show and just recently interviewed Big Ben...which may be the best interview of Ben I have ever heard. Most of his predictions are dead on. I respect his knowledge and research and actually find him quite personable. Am I MSM also? Good for you mshifko for thinking for yourself.


No doubt he's got his stats in order and he's doing well for himself, but when you don't agree with him he has in the past told people to f off. That doesn't say much for character. I personally have no complaints, he's helped me out a few times with some old games and such...so he's good by me.

Shawn
01-05-2010, 02:38 AM
never understood why so many people disliked smartmonies..i always liked him..

anyone who digs up that many stats, puts that much time into things, i respect...

I speak with Dutch regularly through email and on my site. Whether you like his style or not you can't deny a few facts. The guy is writing stories for the Herald. He has a radio show and just recently interviewed Big Ben...which may be the best interview of Ben I have ever heard. Most of his predictions are dead on. I respect his knowledge and research and actually find him quite personable. Am I MSM also? Good for you mshifko for thinking for yourself.


No doubt he's got his stats in order and he's doing well for himself, but when you don't agree with him he has in the past told people to f off. That doesn't say much for character. I personally have no complaints, he's helped me out a few times with some old games and such...so he's good by me.

I hear ya. Humility was never the man's strong suit. But, I'm surrounded by egos daily...never really bothered me. With that said, he has always treated me with respect and I reciprocate that. I respect his work. If some don't...I can understand. But, some of these guys really have a hard on for messing with the guy. Not, sure what thats about.