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motter1975
12-29-2008, 04:40 PM
I find it interesting at the end of the regular season to compare what the expected Strength of Schedule (based on last years records) is to what the Actual Strength of Schedule is for each team. Not sure what good it does, but just an interesting tidbit to me. Interestingly enough, the Steelers did NOT end up with the hardest schedule this year, (it was actually the 7th hardest), but out of teams with winning records, we did have the hardest schedule. Here are the teams, their final record, their predicted SOS, and their actual SOS. Thought you all might find it interesting. It's sorted by the Actual SOS schedule, hardest to easiest.

Team W L T SOS - Pred SOS - Act
Browns 4 12 0 0.547 0.566
Lions 0 16 0 0.543 0.559
Bengals 4 11 1 0.547 0.551
Jaguars 5 11 0 0.559 0.535
Chiefs 2 14 0 0.453 0.535
Rams 2 14 0 0.488 0.531
Steelers 12 4 0 0.598 0.520
Raiders 5 11 0 0.438 0.520
Ravens 11 5 0 0.551 0.516
Texans 8 8 0 0.547 0.516
Chargers 8 8 0 0.442 0.516
Eagles 9 6 1 0.520 0.512
Vikings 10 6 0 0.551 0.504
Packers 6 10 0 0.531 0.504
Colts 12 4 0 0.594 0.496
Giants 12 4 0 0.520 0.496
Saints 8 8 0 0.449 0.496
Seahawks 4 12 0 0.477 0.496
Cowboys 9 7 0 0.523 0.492
Panthers 12 4 0 0.465 0.488
Cardinals 9 7 0 0.465 0.484
Patriots 11 5 0 0.387 0.480
Buccaneers 9 7 0 0.469 0.480
Bears 9 7 0 0.531 0.473
Redskins 8 8 0 0.523 0.473
Jets 9 7 0 0.457 0.469
Dolphins 11 5 0 0.465 0.461
Titans 13 3 0 0.551 0.457
Falcons 11 5 0 0.469 0.457
Broncos 8 8 0 0.445 0.457
Bills 7 9 0 0.449 0.453
49ers 7 9 0 0.484 0.445

Iron Shiek
12-29-2008, 04:43 PM
Great Stuff Motter! I was looking for this a couple weeks ago and was going to try to calculate it myself, but realized it was going to take me a while...

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2008, 04:48 PM
I haven't seen anything about the relative strength of schedule for next season (now that all of our '09 opponents have been finalized), but it looks REALLY weak compared to the juggernauts we played this season.

Here is who we play next year at home:

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee.

Here is who we play next year on the road:

Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami

16-0, baby!!! :mrgreen:

motter1975
12-29-2008, 04:50 PM
Thanks! I looked for it too, couldn't find it, so I set up a spreadsheet and did it myself...I've actually been tracking it since about week 10, and now that I have all of the formulas set up, I fully intend to keep it up for next year. I started looking at it because of everyone saying that we had the hardest schedule this year, and I wanted to see if it was true. Well, it's not the hardest schedule, but out of all the playoff teams, it is. And also, when I looked at the adjusted SOS for us this year (taking into account the wins and losses the other teams had against us) our adjusted SOS is actually the third hardest (behind the Browns and the Bengals), so I feel is was a pretty impressive year for us!

Iron Shiek
12-29-2008, 04:51 PM
KC, Miami, Denver, Detroit and Chicago on the road (plus our division)???

Niiiiiiice.

feltdizz
12-29-2008, 04:51 PM
It's so up in the air.. of course we had to go on last years schedule due to all the teams being 0-0 to start the year... no one knows until the season is over who had the hardest schedule and by that time.. the season is over of course...

I remember seeing our schedule drop from being the toughest when we had 5 games left...

but IMO.. looking at our schedule we have no reason to argue with the whole.. teams fell so it wasn't as hard. Our schedule was still the hardest IMO.. we had a stretch of really tough games and I can't see how anyone else could argue against that.

12-4... haters what???

Iron Shiek
12-29-2008, 04:53 PM
Thanks! I looked for it too, couldn't find it, so I set up a spreadsheet and did it myself...I've actually been tracking it since about week 10, and now that I have all of the formulas set up, I fully intend to keep it up for next year. I started looking at it because of everyone saying that we had the hardest schedule this year, and I wanted to see if it was true. Well, it's not the hardest schedule, but out of all the playoff teams, it is. And also, when I looked at the adjusted SOS for us this year (taking into account the wins and losses the other teams had against us) our adjusted SOS is actually the third hardest (behind the Browns and the Bengals), so I feel is was a pretty impressive year for us!


Good work. I was thinking of doing the same thing...but got lazy... :oops:

This is a good indicator of how good of a job Tomlin and company have done...not to mention the injuries they endured.

feltdizz
12-29-2008, 04:54 PM
KC, Miami, Denver, Detroit and Chicago on the road (plus our division)???

Niiiiiiice.

nice now... but when the season plays out.. watch Miami, Denver and Chicago end up being 10 and 11 win teams..

NFL is funny like that.

MeetJoeGreene
12-29-2008, 04:57 PM
That is a great analysis and more impressive that you did it yourself. It is illuminating, however the Browns and Bungles strenght also has alot to do with the success of us and the Ravens.


Thanks! I looked for it too, couldn't find it, so I set up a spreadsheet and did it myself...I've actually been tracking it since about week 10, and now that I have all of the formulas set up, I fully intend to keep it up for next year. I started looking at it because of everyone saying that we had the hardest schedule this year, and I wanted to see if it was true. Well, it's not the hardest schedule, but out of all the playoff teams, it is. And also, when I looked at the adjusted SOS for us this year (taking into account the wins and losses the other teams had against us) our adjusted SOS is actually the third hardest (behind the Browns and the Bengals), so I feel is was a pretty impressive year for us!

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2008, 05:03 PM
KC, Miami, Denver, Detroit and Chicago on the road (plus our division)???

Niiiiiiice.

nice now... but when the season plays out.. watch Miami, Denver and Chicago end up being 10 and 11 win teams..

NFL is funny like that.

Considering that Miami is already an 11 win team this year :shock: and Chicago and Denver had 9 and 8 wins respectively this season, that is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

motter1975
12-29-2008, 05:12 PM
I haven't seen anything about the relative strength of schedule for next season (now that all of our '09 opponents have been finalized), but it looks REALLY weak compared to the juggernauts we played this season.

Here is who we play next year at home:

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee.

Here is who we play next year on the road:

Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami

16-0, baby!!! :mrgreen:

Our predicted SOS for next year is 0.429. Our opponents for next year had a combined record of 110/144/2...Definitely doesn't look nearly as scary as this years...but again, all of that can change! Who would have looked at Miami or Atlanta on their schedule for this year and thought it would be a tough game!

Iron Shiek
12-29-2008, 05:23 PM
KC, Miami, Denver, Detroit and Chicago on the road (plus our division)???

Niiiiiiice.

nice now... but when the season plays out.. watch Miami, Denver and Chicago end up being 10 and 11 win teams..

NFL is funny like that.

Considering that Miami is already an 11 win team this year :shock: and Chicago and Denver had 9 and 8 wins respectively this season, that is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

Well of course all of this is in the air...just trying play the "schedule is everything" person. We were supposed to win the division with a 7-9 record this year :?: . Looking at next year's schedule, we should win the division with a 15-1 record. :D

Flasteel
12-29-2008, 05:32 PM
Not so fast my friends. Look at the teams on that list above us...they all suck. The strength of schedule is completely skewed by these teams losing so frequently vs. their competition where our opponents wound up having worse records due to the beating we placed on them. Detroit gave an aggregate 16 wins to their opponents victory total while the Steelers only contributed 4.

TallyStiller
12-29-2008, 05:51 PM
Tennessee near the bottom interests me. They and Miami both feasted on soft schedules... and should be vulnerable in January. I see it being us and Indy or us and the Rats at Heinz for the trip to Tampa.

NW Steeler
12-29-2008, 07:09 PM
Tennessee near the bottom interests me. They and Miami both feasted on soft schedules... and should be vulnerable in January. I see it being us and Indy or us and the Rats at Heinz for the trip to Tampa.

Do you think that MIami even has a chance against the Rats? I don't.

Jooser
12-29-2008, 07:41 PM
How do the *s end up with a predicted SOS of .387 one year after going undefeated in the regular season and playing in the freakin' Super Bowl? What a joke the league is sometimes..... :HeadBanger

Ozey74
12-29-2008, 08:01 PM
I haven't seen anything about the relative strength of schedule for next season (now that all of our '09 opponents have been finalized), but it looks REALLY weak compared to the juggernauts we played this season.

Here is who we play next year at home:

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee.

Here is who we play next year on the road:

Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami

16-0, baby!!! :mrgreen:

Maybe we will get the Lions on Turkey Day!!!

:tt2

stlrz d
12-29-2008, 09:05 PM
I just hope this season is a lesson to all those "OMG THE SCHEDULE IS IMPOSSIBLE! WE'LL BE LUCKY TO WIN 8 GAMES" people.

Sheesh.

Jooser
12-30-2008, 01:00 AM
Without this lights out Defense, we'd be lucky to have won 8 games, and that's a fact.......

Iron Shiek
12-30-2008, 10:06 AM
Tennessee near the bottom interests me. They and Miami both feasted on soft schedules... and should be vulnerable in January. I see it being us and Indy or us and the Rats at Heinz for the trip to Tampa.

Do you think that MIami even has a chance against the Rats? I don't.

Probably nobody does. And that's exactly why Miami could win. These things always seem to happen with the "sure" things. We'll see. I'd still pick the Ravens with a gund to my head.

AngryAsian
12-30-2008, 01:19 PM
I find it interesting at the end of the regular season to compare what the expected Strength of Schedule (based on last years records) is to what the Actual Strength of Schedule is for each team. Not sure what good it does, but just an interesting tidbit to me. Interestingly enough, the Steelers did NOT end up with the hardest schedule this year, (it was actually the 7th hardest), but out of teams with winning records, we did have the hardest schedule. Here are the teams, their final record, their predicted SOS, and their actual SOS. Thought you all might find it interesting. It's sorted by the Actual SOS schedule, hardest to easiest.

Team W L T SOS - Pred SOS - Act
Browns 4 12 0 0.547 0.566
Lions 0 16 0 0.543 0.559
Bengals 4 11 1 0.547 0.551
Jaguars 5 11 0 0.559 0.535
Chiefs 2 14 0 0.453 0.535
Rams 2 14 0 0.488 0.531
Steelers 12 4 0 0.598 0.520
Raiders 5 11 0 0.438 0.520
Ravens 11 5 0 0.551 0.516
Texans 8 8 0 0.547 0.516
Chargers 8 8 0 0.442 0.516
Eagles 9 6 1 0.520 0.512
Vikings 10 6 0 0.551 0.504
Packers 6 10 0 0.531 0.504
Colts 12 4 0 0.594 0.496
Giants 12 4 0 0.520 0.496
Saints 8 8 0 0.449 0.496
Seahawks 4 12 0 0.477 0.496
Cowboys 9 7 0 0.523 0.492
Panthers 12 4 0 0.465 0.488
Cardinals 9 7 0 0.465 0.484
Patriots 11 5 0 0.387 0.480
Buccaneers 9 7 0 0.469 0.480
Bears 9 7 0 0.531 0.473
Redskins 8 8 0 0.523 0.473
Jets 9 7 0 0.457 0.469
Dolphins 11 5 0 0.465 0.461
Titans 13 3 0 0.551 0.457
Falcons 11 5 0 0.469 0.457
Broncos 8 8 0 0.445 0.457
Bills 7 9 0 0.449 0.453
49ers 7 9 0 0.484 0.445


Motter, if the wedding thing doesn't work out, give me a holler... I think I love you. :lol: :lol: :lol: Gotta love a female Steeler fan!!! If the wedding thing does work out...

would you please have a talk with my wife.

motter1975
12-30-2008, 04:03 PM
Motter, if the wedding thing doesn't work out, give me a holler... I think I love you. :lol: :lol: :lol: Gotta love a female Steeler fan!!! If the wedding thing does work out...

would you please have a talk with my wife.

Asian, I'll keep you in mind if things don't work out...but since Mike and I have been together for almost 9 years, I think it's a pretty safe bet that this one will work. Only a few more weeks, and then it's the big day! And I'm hoping for a great Wedding/Birthday present (wedding's Jan. 17, birthday's Jan. 18)...watching the Steelers with the AFC Championship game and see them head for Tampa to the Super Bowl!

As far as your wife...I wish I could help ya. I think the football gene just has to be bred into you...I come from a large family Steeler fans, and I was indoctrinated at a very early age. Have patience...she may come around!

Iron Shiek
12-30-2008, 04:10 PM
Wow...what a weekend! Congrats and enjoy.

TallyStiller
12-30-2008, 08:09 PM
[quote=TallyStiller]Tennessee near the bottom interests me. They and Miami both feasted on soft schedules... and should be vulnerable in January. I see it being us and Indy or us and the Rats at Heinz for the trip to Tampa.

Do you think that MIami even has a chance against the Rats? I don't.

Probably nobody does. And that's exactly why Miami could win. These things always seem to happen with the "sure" things. We'll see. I'd still pick the Ravens with a gund to my head.[/quote:lbosk03l]

Anything's possible in the NFL... nobody thought the Giants could beat the 18 - 0 *s prior to last year's Super Bowl :lol: :lol: :lol: . That game, though will come down, like so many in the postseason, to turnovers. Miami doesn't turn it over - they quoted a stat Sunday that Miami's opponents have only started 9 drives in their territory all year. Baltimore forces a lot of turnovers. If Miami can keep the ball and it's defense can force Flacco to make a couple of mistakes, I think they could pull it off... but I don't think it likely.

RuthlessBurgher
12-30-2008, 11:35 PM
[quote=TallyStiller]Tennessee near the bottom interests me. They and Miami both feasted on soft schedules... and should be vulnerable in January. I see it being us and Indy or us and the Rats at Heinz for the trip to Tampa.

Do you think that MIami even has a chance against the Rats? I don't.

Probably nobody does. And that's exactly why Miami could win. These things always seem to happen with the "sure" things. We'll see. I'd still pick the Ravens with a gund to my head.

Anything's possible in the NFL... nobody thought the Giants could beat the 18 - 0 *s prior to last year's Super Bowl :lol: :lol: :lol: . That game, though will come down, like so many in the postseason, to turnovers. Miami doesn't turn it over - they quoted a stat Sunday that Miami's opponents have only started 9 drives in their territory all year. Baltimore forces a lot of turnovers. If Miami can keep the ball and it's defense can force Flacco to make a couple of mistakes, I think they could pull it off... but I don't think it likely.[/quote:16cz2fg6]

I prefer the uber-efficient Pennington in favorable Miami weather at home over a rookie QB starting his first ever playoff game on the road. Call me crazy, but I think the Dolphins pull it off and come to Pittsburgh for the division.

Djfan
12-30-2008, 11:46 PM
I prefer the uber-efficient Pennington in favorable Miami weather at home over a rookie QB starting his first ever playoff game on the road. Call me crazy, but I think the Dolphins pull it off and come to Pittsburgh for the division.

Here's hoping you're right!

Asian,

You should have made matrimony conditional upon her Steelers fandom. I did and it paid off big! Just today we were talking about how cool it is to be so into the Steelers and football. It is good for our family, too.

Earlier as I was making business calls, she was watching college bowl games. Love that girl!!

Congrats Motter!