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View Full Version : Not fair to compare luckluster playoff games to Reg season



Mr Smartmonies
07-01-2008, 02:09 PM
When mentioning Carson Palmers' passer failings against teams like the Chiefs , 49ers, Etc etc last year, a question was brought to my attention.

Hey, what about Roethlisberger's failings against Jacksonville??

Yes, true he had a poor game. Well poor first half anyway. But comparing a QB's poor games in a PLAYOFF UNDERDOG ROLE, versus another QB playing as a FAVORITE in a Regular season game against the bottom feeders is not fair or accurate.

Case in point, here are some QB's , their passer ratings, and won / loss records when their team was a playoff underdog. How did they perform? here is your answer.

BRADY 5 GAMES TOTAL = 71% PASSER RATING RECORD 3-2

ROETH 3 GAMES TOTAL = 99% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-1

Pmann 5 GAMES TOTAL = 63% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-3

Montana 1 (since 86) = 34% passer rating RECORD 0-1

Marino 9 Games(86) = 71% Passer rating RECORD 3-6

ELWay 6 Games (86) = 61% Passer rating Record 1-4

costanza2k1
07-01-2008, 03:26 PM
Nice. I am just amazed at your ability to pull up stats. Keep them up please they make for an interesting read as always.

Iron Shiek
07-01-2008, 04:18 PM
Yeah thanks MSM. That Peyton Manning number is so telling. Just think back in all those playoff games where he just got pummeled and sucked. It was fair to think he would never win a big one. Good thing they put it together that year or he would still be hearing it, god awful numbers....

Jom112
07-01-2008, 05:00 PM
When mentioning Carson Palmers' passer failings against teams like the Chiefs , 49ers, Etc etc last year, a question was brought to my attention.

Hey, what about Roethlisberger's failings against Jacksonville??

Yes, true he had a poor game. Well poor first half anyway. But comparing a QB's poor games in a PLAYOFF UNDERDOG ROLE, versus another QB playing as a FAVORITE in a Regular season game against the bottom feeders is not fair or accurate.

Case in point, here are some QB's , their passer ratings, and won / loss records when their team was a playoff underdog. How did they perform? here is your answer.

BRADY 5 GAMES TOTAL = 71% PASSER RATING RECORD 3-2

ROETH 3 GAMES TOTAL = 99% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-1

Pmann 5 GAMES TOTAL = 63% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-3

Montana 1 (since 86) = 34% passer rating RECORD 0-1

Marino 9 Games(86) = 71% Passer rating RECORD 3-6

ELWay 6 Games (86) = 61% Passer rating Record 1-4

If I could take any one QB in their prime on that list for a playoff game it would probably be Montana. Most people would probably agree with me because Manning chokes at times and Brady cheats.

It's interesting how he is the lowest rated QB on that list though. I think that speaks more about the inability of Passer Ratings to accurately rate QB's unless some kind of normalization is done than Montana's abilities.

When a QB doesn't throw as much or play in as many games as other QB's the Passer Rating System is ineffective to say the least. I would like to see the raw numbers (completion %, total passing yards, total # of TD's, total # of INT's, etc...). I think they would tell a better story of how the QB's did then just Passer Rating... :2c

Mr Smartmonies
07-01-2008, 05:21 PM
Nice. I am just amazed at your ability to pull up stats. Keep them up please they make for an interesting read as always.

Thanks. Some like it, some hate me for it though. :(

I have a database and I constantly work on Projects for the 4 major sports.
When I come across stuf like this and kind of put two and two together, I make
sure I remember it. It definately gives one a different outlook on things. Imagine
me as Ben Roethlisberger's agent. Who could do a better job. :D

Mr Smartmonies
07-01-2008, 05:25 PM
When mentioning Carson Palmers' passer failings against teams like the Chiefs , 49ers, Etc etc last year, a question was brought to my attention.

Hey, what about Roethlisberger's failings against Jacksonville??

Yes, true he had a poor game. Well poor first half anyway. But comparing a QB's poor games in a PLAYOFF UNDERDOG ROLE, versus another QB playing as a FAVORITE in a Regular season game against the bottom feeders is not fair or accurate.

Case in point, here are some QB's , their passer ratings, and won / loss records when their team was a playoff underdog. How did they perform? here is your answer.

BRADY 5 GAMES TOTAL = 71% PASSER RATING RECORD 3-2

ROETH 3 GAMES TOTAL = 99% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-1

Pmann 5 GAMES TOTAL = 63% PASSER RATING RECORD 2-3

Montana 1 (since 86) = 34% passer rating RECORD 0-1

Marino 9 Games(86) = 71% Passer rating RECORD 3-6

ELWay 6 Games (86) = 61% Passer rating Record 1-4

If I could take any one QB in their prime on that list for a playoff game it would probably be Montana. Most people would probably agree with me because Manning chokes at times and Brady cheats.

It's interesting how he is the lowest rated QB on that list though. I think that speaks more about the inability of Passer Ratings to accurately rate QB's unless some kind of normalization is done than Montana's abilities.

When a QB doesn't throw as much or play in as many games as other QB's the Passer Rating System is ineffective to say the least. I would like to see the raw numbers (completion %, total passing yards, total # of TD's, total # of INT's, etc...). I think they would tell a better story of how the QB's did then just Passer Rating... :2c

Montana has only 1 game recorded within the stats I provided, I just couldn't go back any further than 86. So that passer rating is not fair to him. I'm sure it would be better. For example I believe he was a 1 point under dog against Dallas in 81. Im sure he played good in that game.

If your looking for a QB stat that trumps all other passing stats, its YARDS PER ATTEMPT. No other stat aligns with winning games more so then yards per pass attempt.

Shawn
07-01-2008, 06:33 PM
Nice. I am just amazed at your ability to pull up stats. Keep them up please they make for an interesting read as always.

Agreed great reads. I also hope to see more of your weekly picks this season.

Jom112
07-02-2008, 08:57 AM
Thanks. Some like it, some hate me for it though. :(

I have a database and I constantly work on Projects for the 4 major sports.
When I come across stuf like this and kind of put two and two together, I make
sure I remember it. It definately gives one a different outlook on things. Imagine
me as Ben Roethlisberger's agent. Who could do a better job. :D

It's good stuff, not sure why anyone would be hating on it (Except me of course)...

Flasteel
07-02-2008, 10:40 AM
Nice. I am just amazed at your ability to pull up stats. Keep them up please they make for an interesting read as always.

Thanks. Some like it, some hate me for it though. :(

I have a database and I constantly work on Projects for the 4 major sports.
When I come across stuf like this and kind of put two and two together, I make
sure I remember it. It definately gives one a different outlook on things. Imagine
me as Ben Roethlisberger's agent. Who could do a better job. :D

I don't think anyone hates you for the numbers...they are a welcome contribution to the board.
:Boobs

Djfan
07-02-2008, 01:43 PM
Maybe we need a thread on why people hate MSM? j/k.

I like the info he brings. You rarely see one of his threads being left with only one or two replies, and often see them extending multiple pages. There's a reason for that.

I have to admit that the side of sports he brings is foreign to me, so I like it.

birtikidis
07-02-2008, 03:36 PM
I enjoy reading his posts. i like to poke fun at him though because he gets all bent out of shape. lol!
i'm of the belief though that if you can't defend ur stance then you really don't believe in it. and i LOVE playing devils advocate!
so if i argue with you MSM it's usually from a stance from agreement just want you to defend why.
or i think your wrong
one or the other..!

birtikidis
07-02-2008, 03:38 PM
but i do hate when people make a young player out to be the next great thing.
hated it with lebron
hated it with bay
hated it with ben
hated it with all of them!

i think that you have to look back at a players career to see how great he is rather than before the body of work is accomplished.